2014 Recruiting Projections…
The Class of 2014 recruiting season has reached its halfway point. A review of the current team rankings can be seen by going on to the Rivals, Scout and ESPN websites. These preliminary rankings can go a long way in providing a summer fix for avid college football fans. It is important however to keep in mind that these rankings are based on current commitment lists and that these rankings will change dramatically by next February. At the same time, it is fun to look at today’s lists and to envision what the final rankings may look like. Each of these recruiting services uses their very own unique and complicated computation system to arrive at their team rankings. For the purpose of my projections, I try to keep things simple, particularly this far away from signing day. My first assumption in ranking teams in late July is to rank teams based on their NCAA yearly allotment of 25 players. My next step is to use the current player average for each team. I have noticed over the years that this system tends to produce reliable results in terms of projecting the final rankings. For the purpose of my projections, I utilize the star ratings given to players by Rivals.
Below are the Big 12 rankings based on this system. For comparison sake, the July 25-Rivals rankings are in parenthesis. Based on this information, Texas has not changed its system of trying to lock Texas players. Similar to past years the Horns have jumped out early and have almost completed their 2014 recruiting class. By using this method, the Horns are currently ranked #1 in the Big 12 and #5 in the country by Rivals and #7 by Scout. Based on these numbers and on projections, Texas may end up edging out Oklahoma for the top spot in the conference, but I would not ake that bet to Vegas just yet. In the end, I expect Texas with its 21 member commitment class that currently averages out at 3.21 will possibly eke out a top 25 national finish, but I suspect that in the end, OU will beat out the Horns for the top conference spot. Oklahoma has a lot of upside with only 11 commitments while being in on a number of top national players still left on the board. Oklahoma’s current 3.09 average is a great start for a big finish down the road. Many high school players still interested in the Sooners are likely waiting to see how the Sooner season plays out this year. A surge in the rankings throughout the 2013 season is a real possibility. Based on preliminary findings, It can be assumed that the Sooners will finish no lower than 2nd in the conference and no lower than #28 nationally. Again, the possibility of OU edging out of Texas for Big 12 supremacy is a real possibility. As for the rest of the conference, Kansas and West Virginia are doing better than the summer rankings would lead us to believe. Both have commitment lists that average 3 stars. On the other hand Baylor, the darling of recruiting boards of late will not finish in the top 35 when the dust settles; same goes for the rest of the Big 12 teams. OSU in particular will need a big lift between now and signing day to keep its streak of top 30 classes intact.
One last thing, with the playoff season only one year away, conference RPI’s supported by solid recruiting classes should be kept in mind. As expected, the SEC continues to lead the way nationally with twelve (12) conference teams on target for outstanding recruiting years. The Big Ten with eight (8) and Pac 12 with eight (8) are projected to finish the recruiting season 2nd and 3rd. Conferences with their classes that average 3.0 or higher are listed below along with their conference sizes. 2014 realigned conferences are used for this comparison.
SEC = 12/14 – 86%
Pac 12 = 8/12 – 67%
Big 10 = 8/14 – 57%
Big 12 = 4/10 – 40%
ACC = 5/15 – 33%
Class of 2014 Rankings as of 7/24/13…
(Projected 2013 class rankings based on five star averages)
Big 12 (four teams rated at 3.0 and above)
- (3.19) Texas (5)
- (3.09) Oklahoma (34)
- (3.00) Kansas (55)
- (3.00) West Virginia (66)
- (2.88) TCU (53)
- (2.71) Kansas State (64)
- (2.69) Texas Tech (26)
- (2.68) Baylor (19)
- (2.67) Oklahoma state (36)
- (2.60) Iowa State (51)
SEC (twelve teams rated at 3.0 and above)
- (3.58) Georgia
- (3.55) LSU
- (3.53) Alabama
- (3.50) Texas A&M
- (3.45) Florida
- (3.44) South Carolina
- (3.44) Auburn
- (3.30) Tennessee
- (3.30) Vanderbilt
- (3.22) Kentucky
- (3.20) Arkansas
- (3.06) Mississippi
- (2.69) Mississippi state
- (2.58) Missouri
ACC (five teams rated at 3.0 and above)
- (3.64) Notre Dame
- (3.50) Clemson
- (3.28) Florida State
- (3.21) Miami
- (3.11) Virginia
- (2.95) Louisville
- (2.92) Virginia Tech
- (2.88) North Carolina
- (2.82) Georgia Tech
- (2.86) Syracuse
- (2.77) NC State
- (2.70) Boston College
- (2.64) Pittsburgh
- (2.64) Duke
- (2.33) Wake Forest
Big Ten (eight teams rated at 3.0 and above)
- (3.50) Michigan
- (3.36) Ohio State
- (3.23) Penn State
- (3.17) Northwestern
- (3.09) Wisconsin
- (3.08) Michigan State
- (3.00)Purdue
- (3.00) Minnesota
- (2.82) Nebraska
- (2.80) Rutgers
- (2.71) Maryland
- (2.67) Illinois
- (2.63) Iowa
- (2.57) Indiana
Pac 12 (eight teams rated at 3.0 and above)
- (3.43) Washington
- (3.30) USC
- (3.29) Stanford
- (3.25) UCLA
- (3.14) Oregon
- (3.11) California
- (3.00) Arizona State
- (3.00) Utah
- (2.91) Arizona
- (2.86) Colorado
- (2.75) Oregon State
- (2.63) Washington State
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National rankings…
(Teams with player average of 3.0 or higher)
1. (3.67) Notre Dame
2. (3.64) LSU
3. (3.57) USC
4. (3.53) Alabama
5. (3.50) Texas A&M
5. (3.50) Michigan
5. (3.50) Clemson
8. (3.48) Tennessee
9. (3.45) Florida
10. (3.43) Washington
11. (3.40) Georgia
11. (3.40) South Carolina
13. (3.36) Ohio State
14. (3.28) Florida State
15. (3.25) Oregon
15. (3.25) Auburn
17. (3.25) Stanford
17. (3.25) UCLA
19. (3.23) Penn State
20. (3.21) Texas
20. (3.21) Kentucky
22. (3.20) Miami
23. (3.14) Vanderbilt
23. (3.14) Arkansas
25. (3.11) Virginia
25. (3.11) California
25. (3.11) Mississippi
28. (3.09) Wisconsin
28. (3.09) Oklahoma
30. (3.08) Michigan State
31. (3.08) Northwestern
32. (3.00) Iowa
32. (3.00) Utah
32. (3.00) Kansas
32. (3.00) West Virginia
32. (3.00) Arizona State
32. (3.00) Utah
32. (3.00) Minnesota